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Job Quality Offers Weak Wages
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March 04, 2016

Headlines for the Employment Report allowed the president to take a victory lap but that was like Bush’s "Mission Accomplished" nonsense.

Within the data was the buried kernel of truth—80% of new jobs were at minimum wage level.

Wages declined which isn’t good of course but the take away for me is the U.S. now has what amounts to a permanent under-class of workers. This plays into the hand of candidate Trump naturally as outsourcing of skilled labor with several trade deals has hit home for workers…just sayin’.

Crude oil prices continued to rise, 90% correlated to the S&P 500, as rumors of an oil price freeze have falsely become fact. It’s amusing to me that Venezuela, Russia and others have bought into this farce given the platers lack of credibility—again, just sayin’. Epic short-squeeze is the conventional wisdom. And, the rally extended to beaten down Brazil believing arresting leaders will lead to better fundamentals.

China was “hoped” to launch more stimulus given lowered economic data. Do they have this kind of credibility? I don’t think so, but it’s good for a rally—just sayin’.

Gold rose early but fell back late as popular ETF IAU has stopped issuance of new shares given high in-flows and less gold available to back it up. This makes it like a closed-end fund with premiums possible.

Market sectors moving higher included: Most sectors.

Market sectors moving lower included: Volatility (VIX), Energy MLPs (AMLP), Treasury Bonds (TLT), Dollar (UUP) and Gold Stocks (GDX).

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).

3-4-2016 3-29-00 PM

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Volume picked up a little bit but we’re still running light. Breadth per the WSJ was positive once again. Markets are much overbought, (see NYMO below).

3-4-2016 3-29-50 PM

 

12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day

 

 

 

12-31-1969 4-00-00 PM EEM

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY  5  MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation has changed due to a variety of new factors including HFTs, new VIX linked ETPs and a multitude of new products to leverage trading and change or obscure prior VIX relevance. 

 

There’s a lot to discuss, but I’ve said all I want to say this day, except for one thing: No matter how much you don’t like the markets, or even angry with it, you have to follow the tape and your system.

That’s the most important lesson I can convey this day and every day. 

Let’s see what happens. 

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

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Top 25 Best ETF Newslettersin 2015.

ETF Digest was awarded one of the most informative ETF websites in the10th Annual Global ETF Awards.



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Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

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