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Rumors As News Now Planted By Dubious Players
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February 25, 2016

It’s another day where oil prices, correlated 90% to the S&P 500, rise pulling stocks higher along with it. Thursday, it's Venezuela saying Russia, Saudis and Qatar will meet next week to discuss high production levels.

Please…Venezuela?!? They are habitual liars about the color of the sky.

Nevertheless, oil price watchers took their assertion as being fact despite the country’s habitual lying and taking rumors as truth. It may be so, but given the three country’s recent previous denials about production cuts and Venezuela’s conflict of interest, well you’ll understand my skepticism.  

Stocks rallied again with oil ignoring another lousy day of poor economic data and weakening corporate earnings guidance. But clearly again, the tape is the tape   and a disciplined trader should respect it. But, playing the declining oil price production card is becoming a joke played too often.

Thursday economic data was mixed to weak once again. Durable Goods Orders rose sharply to 4.9% vs prior -4.6%, but ex-Transportation (aircraft) the reading was 1.8% vs 1.07%. Jobless Claims rose to 272K vs prior 270K; FHFA HPI fell to 0.4% vs prior 0.06%; and Kansas City Fed Mfg Index fell again sharply to -12 vs prior -9. Also many corporations led by banks and retailers guided earnings and sales lower—not good obviously.

But overall, bulls were blinded by a surge in oil prices once again.

Market sectors moving higher included: Most stock and energy sectors.

Market sectors moving lower included: Volatility (VIX), China (FXI), Brazil (EWZ) and India (EPI)

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).

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Volume was quite light once again on buying and breadth per the WSJ was positive.

2-25-2016 3-25-31 PM

12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day

 

 

 

2-25-2016 2-48-09 PM USO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY  5  MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation has changed due to a variety of new factors including HFTs, new VIX linked ETPs and a multitude of new products to leverage trading and change or obscure prior VIX relevance.


     

Another short commentary as I’d like to see how the week closes given now an important turn is possible.

Not that it seems to matter these days, but economic data Friday includes GDP, Personal Income & Spending, Consumer Sentiment, Oil Rig Count and 3 Fed speakers  to top things off.

Let’s see what happens. 

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

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Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

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