Stocks were sharply lower to start what we like to call Turnaround Tuesday.
Then what passes for the 2:15 Buy Program Express kicked in and stocks launched a powerful turnaround based on literally nothing at all.
Does somebody know something we commoners don’t know? Possibly. But the HFTs may just be messing with us for fun and short-term profits.
Or, is Yellen & Co going to offer some drama in testimony to the legislatures Wednesday and Thursday? There were rumors from traders the Fed will launch Operation Twist part 2, which given the intent of such an action, would seem counter to their overall plans. The rumblings from the globe indicate negative interest rates (NIRP) may be offered to stem the bleeding.
Speaking of NIRP and where these policies are now in place, that market declined nearly 5% just Tuesday. So, how’s that working for them? Clearly not! So should the Fed do this and save the stock market. That wouldn’t seem logical would it?
Again, words fail me.
Still confounding investors in Europe is the ongoing pressure on Deutsche Bank with we highlighted in yesterday’s commentary. Another cause for the afternoon rally was centered on a desperate proposal by the bank to buyback debt using existing liquidity as FT notes below.
“The plan doesn’t involve Deutsche’s Co, which have come under heavy pressure over the last several days with yields soaring as the market increasingly doubts the bank’s ability to make good on its subordinate debt. Deutsche will need to make coupon payments in April.
“Deutsche Bank has plenty of scope for a bond buyback, with €220bn of liquidity reserves,” FT notes. Of course the bank’s liquidity position will be diminished thanks to the buyback and the buyback is only necessary because the market is concerned about the bank’s liquidity. So there’s a bit of a chicken-egg scenario going on with this truly absurd attempt to calm markets by reducing debt.”
Another weird move Tuesday included a nearly 6% decline in crude oil prices due to an increase in OPEC production. Obama then followed to propose a $10 increase per barrel in oil taxes. Not to worry, that dog will not hunt, and displays the president’s detachment from economic fundamentals. The dollar fell but so oddly did gold prices if only slightly. Conservative stock sectors (healthcare, industrials, consumer staples and even materials) rose on the day while higher beta sectors fell.
If all the above wasn’t enough the Trade Deficit with China grew to a record high of $365.7 billion last month. This is more fodder for The Donald.
Market sectors moving higher included: Volatility (VXX), Healthcare (XLV), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB) but not much else.
Market sectors moving lower included: Small Cap Stocks (IWM), REITs (IYR), Europe (IEV), UK (EWU), Japan (EWJ), China (FXI) Brazil (EWZ) Emerging Markets (EEM), Canada (EWC), Russia (RSX), India (EPI), Australia (EWA), South Korea (EWY), Taiwan (EWT), Mexico (EWW), Crude Oil (USO), Silver (SLV), Gold Stocks (GDX), Dollar (UUP), and need I continue?
Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).
Let’s see what happens.
Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.
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Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com