Markets fell Monday to start what will be a busy week for economic data. Monday’s economic news was awful to put it directly. Chicago PMI Mfg Survey imploded to only 48.7 vs 54 expected & prior 56.2; Pending Home Sales were flat; and, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey fell for the 11th month in a row. If bad news remains good, markets should have rallied strongly, but I think it’s fair to say conditions over the next two weeks will remain up in the air given a likely change in Fed monetary policies.
Leading stocks lower were found in the retail sector which is logical to my thinking given how illogical the retail sector had behaved last week moving higher on bad data. Brick and mortar retailers reported weaker Black Friday shopping than online activity.
The big news was the IMF was going to add the yuan to the basket of elite currencies which does seem strange given the currency is controlled and managed by the Chinese government. Generally the basket of currencies favored by the IMF are generally free to float and not managed.
Elsewhere hopes are high the ECB will cut interest rates in Europe on Thursday. Should they not cut rates many believe there will be disappointments.
Market sectors moving higher included: China (FXI), Taiwan (EWT), Hong Kong (EWH), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), India (EPI), Gold (GLD), Gold Stocks (GDX), Bonds (TLT) and a handful of others.
Market sectors moving lower included: Healthcare (XLV), Biotech (IBB), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Retail (XRT), Consumer Staples (XLP), REITs (IYR), Transports (IYT), Brazil (EWZ), South Korea (EWY), Indonesia (IDX), Crude Oil (USO), Mexico (EWW) and many others.
The top ETF daily market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.
Volume was modest Monday and breadth per the WSJ was negative overall.
This will be a heavy week for economic data. Tuesday features PMI Manufacturing Index; ISM Mfg Index; and, Construction Spending. Fed Gov’s Evans and Brainard speak.
ADP Employment Report, Fed Beige Book and Productivity & Costs are featured Wednesday along with Janet Yellen and John Williams.
Thursday features Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg Index and more pep-talks from Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer.
Then Friday is the big Employment Report which should provide the Fed with the ammunition they need to raise interest rates. At least that’s the belief.
Let’s see what happens.
Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001. ETF Digest is listed as #16 in theTop 50 Investing Blogsand named one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.
Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com