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Fed Open To More Experiments
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November 23, 2015

 

“Central banks should consider the possibility of keeping larger balance sheet, or using negative interest rates, to provide stimulus when needed. SF Fed John Williams 

Governor Williams made this comment after the market close on Friday. In ordinary times, this would be shocking, but this isn’t your father’s Fed, now is it? I thought not.

Rumors are floated around suggesting the Fed will raise interest rates slightly and combine this with QE4 perhaps.

After all economic data remains crappy overall. Today’s economic release features Chicago Activity Index, still low, but only slightly better at 0.04 vs prior –o.37; Existing Home Sales fell -3.7%; and, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash plunged to 52.6 vs 54.4 expected & prior 54.

Pfizer and Allergan decided to hook-up which will allow the combined companies to locate overseas saving on corporate taxes. This prompted angry comments from some politicians but it strikes me those complaining would do better to understand why US tax policies are causing this and fix it.

Market sectors moving higher included: Small Caps (IWM), Biotech (IBB), Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Retail (XRT), Crude Oil (USO) and not much else.

Market sectors moving lower included: Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), Utilities (XLU), Tech (XLK), Europe (IEV), Eurozone (EZU), EAFE (EFA), UK (EWU), Emerging Markets (EEM), Japan (EWJ),, China (FXI), Australia (EWA), India (EPI), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), Taiwan (EWT), Hong Kong (EWH), Brazil (EWZ), Mexico (EWW), Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Base Metals (DBB), God Stocks (GDX) and many more.

The top ETF daily market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was ultra-light as many may be taking the shortened Holiday week off to get their camping spot in front of retailers for Black Friday. Breadth per the WSJ was mixed overall.

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11-23-2015 6-25-21 PM

Charts of the Day
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    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX WEEKLY

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    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

 

The Keynesian experiments continue and who knows what else will emerge from their laboratory.

I’ll be reducing posting this week unless something extraordinary happens. And, given the fragility of geopolitical events, we’ll be at the ready.

Let’s see what happens.

...

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.  ETF Digest is listed as #16 in theTop 50 Investing Blogsand named one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.



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