Return Of The Sell In May & Go Away Refrain
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May 04, 2016

5-4-2016 3-21-29 PM

Yes, these maxims are often wrong, and they become trite, but it seems bears may be lurking anxious to seize the opportunity.

But we’ve seen since October 2015 and much of 2016 bears saw opportunities come and go amid serious volatility.

Fundamental market views certainly support bears since October 2015.

Declining global economic data and earnings have left stocks overprice when measured by sky high Pes and so forth. Yet cheap central bank money has supported bulls as has unproductive massive stock buybacks. The 8-year refrain has supported a “more money than brains” environment.

Stocks continued to fall Wednesday although the obligatory 2:15 PM Buy Program Express (see 5-minute SPY chart below) helped to stem losses.  

Economic data Wednesday was mixed overall with some key reports weak. Significantly, the much watched ADP Employment Report fell sharply only 156K new jobs vs prior 194K; Productivity fell to -1.00% while Labor Costs rose to 0.4%, a serious negative; The Trade Deficit fell to $-40.4B vs prior $-47.00B; both ISM & PMI Services Index gain slightly while Factory Orders recovered from major declines the previous period from –1.9% vs current 1.1%.

Oil Inventories climbed to 2.8M bbls vs prior 2.M bbls. Oil reacted modestly positive as traders felt it might be worse. Still we await Thursday’s government report. With the dollar stronger once again this day gold and other commodity sectors remained lower.

Elsewhere the feisty Chinese government decided to trump Trump and the Fed by lowering again the Yuan’s value to stimulate a better trade position. Should Trump win, this would be fun.

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).

5-4-2016 3-23-13 PM

Volume was modestly higher and breadth per the WSJ was negative once again.

5-4-2016 3-24-10 PM

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12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day

 

 

 

5-4-2016 3-32-29 PM XBI

 

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • HYG WEEKLY

    HYG WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • USO DAILY

    USO DAILY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation has changed due to a variety of new factors including HFTs, new VIX linked ETPs and a multitude of new products to leverage trading and change or obscure prior VIX relevance.


     

 

That’s all folks! For Wednesday that is.

Let’s see what happens.

...

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

Named as one of the Top 22 ETF Experts You Need To Follow on Twitter for continuing to deliver high quality analysis and commentary through the ETFDigest Twitter feed.

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ETF Digest™
 

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,212.402.600.22 % 08:15
WTI Crude Futr29.10-0.34-1.15 %16:22
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB158.87-1.50-0.93 %16:28
US Dollar96.900.150.16 % 16:42
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX24.11-1.29-5.08 %16:14
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil953.9610.36 %-0.52 %-7.94 %
Russia376.0882.60 %-6.20 %-7.08 %
India405.4322.63 %-5.21 %-11.78 %
China49.5613.54 %-4.42 %-16.57 %