Dead Cat Bounce To Close The Quarter?
June 30, 2015

6-30-2015 5-23-53 PM

Economic data Tuesday was mixed as missed weaker but rose to 0.3% vs 0.8% expected & prior 1.00%; Chicago PMI still weak & missed at 49.4 vs 50.6 expected & prior 48.2; but Consumer Confidence soared to 101.4 vs 97.4 expected & prior 94.6. Most of the latter was based on “expectations” conditions would be better in the future.

At the same time all this news came before current weak market action.

The joke of the day came from the Fed’s Fischer who stated, “The economy is nearing full employment”.  I guess all those no longer counted as employed have disappeared into the Fed’s gulag view.

Oh, and who can forget the Greek situation? No doubt by the time you view this commentary the country will have defaulted on its debt payment to the IMF. Sure there are trial balloons being floated about with the latest a Greek proposal for a two year deal that was quickly quashed by Germany’s Merkel.

Leading market sectors higher included: Energy (XLE), Biotech (IBB), Emerging Markets (EEM), India (EPI), Brazil (EWZ), Russia (RSX), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), Hong Kong (EWH), Taiwan (EWT), China (FXI), Malaysia (EWM), Australia (EWA), Vietnam (VNM), Singapore (EWS), Indonesia (IDX), South Africa (EZA), China (FXI), Shanghai (PEK), Crude Oil (USO), Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC), Agriculture (DBA) and Grains (JJG).

Leading market sectors lower included: Volatility (VIX), Metals & Mining (XME), Europe (VGK), European Monetary Union (EZU), Europe Asia & Far East (EFA), Thailand (THD), Germany (EWG), UK (EWU), France (EWQ), Switzerland (EWL), Belgium (EWK), Sweden (EWD), Bonds (TLT), Euro (FXE), Swiss Franc (FXF), Base Metals (DBB), Gold (GLD), and Gold Miners (GDX).  

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was quite heavy once again but breadth per the WSJ was only modestly positive.

6-30-2015 5-24-44 PM dIARY

Charts of the Day

    SPY  5  MINUTE














    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.




    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.



    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.


Let’s just say the commentary is shorter this day since all the moving parts and news have the week to play out.

For bulls it was important to have a better day to end the month and quarter. There are management fee bonuses at stake.

Meanwhile, in Iran the deadline for a deal until July 7th. This won’t turn out well methinks. On this news crude prices jumped Tuesday but after the news of an inventory build vs decline prices dropped about 60 cents.

Wednesday and Thursday feature big economic news. Wednesday includes Motor Vehicle Sales; MBA Mortgage Applications, Challenger Job Cuts; PMI Manufacturing Index; ISM Mfg Index; Construction Spending and EIA Petroleum Status Report. Then Friday we get Jobless Claims; The Employment Report; and, Factory Orders.

Taken together these can move markets sharply one way or another. Therefore, and barring other news, Wednesday’s Dave’s Daily will be abbreviated deferring Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s until Thursday.

Let’s see what happens.


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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.  ETF Digest was named one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.


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Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at


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Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,171.30-2.30-0.20 %12:49
WTI Crude Futr57.63-1.84-3.09 %12:19
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB224.46-2.71-1.19 %12:28
US Dollar96.300.540.57 % 12:43
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX16.94-1.29-7.08 %12:27
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil1642.4901.15 %3.59 % -10.36 %
Russia512.8360.93 %-2.92 %26.65 %
India500.7801.07 %-0.07 %0.88 %
China74.3821.71 %-7.09 %12.64 %